Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
18%
implied chance of Yes
The market is pricing this at about 18cents on the dollar. Buy YES at that price and you collect $1 per contract if it happens, and nothing if it doesn't — so the price isthe crowd's probability, minus fees.
- VenuePolymarket
- Volume$464K traded in 24h
- ResolvesDec 31, 2026
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